WANG Chunyan, WEI Jiahua, ZHANG Wenqian, SHEN Yanqing, LIU Jun
Yellow River.
Online available: 2025-07-16
The upper reaches of the Yellow River (UPYR) serve as the primary source area for the basin’s runoff. It is essential to quantify the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the variation patterns of runoff in this region to enhance effective water resource management and support informed decision-making within the Yellow River Basin. In this study, we developed the SWAT hydrological model for the upper reaches of the Yellow River, calibrating and validating it from the base period of 1964 to 1980. We systematically evaluated the effects of climate change and human activities—including water usage, reservoir regulation, and land use—on runoff changes from 1981 to 2020. The findings indicate that a) The basin is currently undergoing a significant increase in both precipitation and temperature, with precipitation levels rising at a rate of 8.11 mm per decade and a corresponding warming rate of 0.35 ℃ per decade. It is important to note that there is spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of the impacts of climate change. In the source area, the contribution rate of the Jimai climate factor is 94%. In contrast, in the headway region, the contribution rate decreases to 21%. b) The influence of human activities on runoff attenuation exhibits spatial gradient characteristics, with variations ranging from 60% to 80% between Lanzhou and Toudaoguai. Human water consumption is identified as the principal contributing factor, accounting for approximately 40% to 45% of this phenomenon. The establishment and operation of the reservoir have resulted in a temporal redistribution of runoff, leading to a decrease of 18.11% ± 6.27% during the flood season and an increase of 12.33% ± 4.2% during the non-flood season. c) Between 1964 and 2020, the annual runoff in the upstream region of the Yellow River experienced a decline of 148 million cubic meters per decade. An analysis of the factors contributing to runoff reveals that precipitation recharge is the primary determinant, accounting for approximately 80% ± 11.33%. This is followed by contributions from snow and ice melt, thawing of frozen soil, and groundwater recharge. The findings of this study elucidate the nonlinear superposition effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, thereby providing theoretical support for understanding the variations in upstream runoff in the context of climate change.