基于投影寻踪模型的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全评价

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摘要：河北省作为京津冀城市圈中不可或缺的一部分,其水、能源、粮食、人口等资源安全稳定对于整个区域经济和社会的发展尤为重要。为了深入了解河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全状况,将人口因素纳入水-能源-粮食系统进行分析,构建水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全评价指标体系,运用基于麻雀算法改进的投影寻踪模型对河北省2010—2019年水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全进行时空演变综合评价。结果表明:在研究期,河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级逐渐升高,各市的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全差异性降低；河北省各市水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级值在1.32～3.95之间,说明该系统安全处于不安全、亚安全、安全3个等级。建议河北省根据自身资源优势，合理分配资源,实现水、能源、粮食和人口的协调发展。

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关键词： 人口因素；安全评价；水-能源-粮食；投影寻踪模型；河北省

Abstract：As an indispensable part of the BeijingTianjinHebei metropolitan circle, the security and stability of water resources, energy, food, population and other resources in Hebei Province are particularly important for the economic and social development of the whole region. Therefore, in order to deeply understand the security situation among water, energy, food and population systems in Hebei Province, population factors were included in the waterenergyfood system for analysis, and a security evaluation index system of waterenergyfoodpopulation system was built. The spatialtemporal evolution of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in Hebei Province during 2010-2019 was comprehensively evaluated by using the projection pursuit model improved by Sparrow algorithm. The results show that during the study period, the security level of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in Hebei Province is gradually increased, and the security difference of waterenergyfoodpopulation system is decreased. The security level values of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in all cities of the province range from 1.32 to 3.95, indicating that the system has three levels of insecurity, subsecurity and security. By analyzing the stability of waterenergygrainpopulation system, it is found that Hebei Province should rationally allocate resources according to its own resources advantages to realize the coordinated development of water, energy, food and population.

Key words： demographic factors; safety evaluation; waterenergyfood; projection pursuit model; Hebei Province

基金资助：国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U20A20316)；河北省创新研究群体项目（E2020402074）

通讯作者介绍：张峥（1981—），男，甘肃白银人，副教授，博士，研究方向为水利信息化

作者简介：何立新（1966—），男，宁夏石嘴山人，教授，博士，主要从事智慧水务与水安全研究工作

引用本文：

何立新^1,2,周帅宇¹,张峥^1,2,李志会¹.基于投影寻踪模型的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全评价[J].人民黄河,2024,46(4):73-78.
HE Lixin^1,2, ZHOU Shuaiyu¹, ZHANG Zheng^1,2, LI Zhihui¹.WaterEnergyFoodPopulation System Security Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit Model .Yellow River,2024,46(4):73-78.

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http://www.rmhh.com.cn/qklb/2024/202404/202404/t20240407_568948.html

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2024,Vol. 46(4): 73

水资源

基于投影寻踪模型的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全评价

何立新^1,2,周帅宇¹,张峥^1,2,李志会¹

（（1.河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸 056038；2.河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸 056038)）

doi:

WaterEnergyFoodPopulation System Security Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit Model

HE Lixin^1,2, ZHOU Shuaiyu¹, ZHANG Zheng^1,2, LI Zhihui¹

(1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China; 2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China)

全文: PDF ()

摘要： 河北省作为京津冀城市圈中不可或缺的一部分,其水、能源、粮食、人口等资源安全稳定对于整个区域经济和社会的发展尤为重要。为了深入了解河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全状况,将人口因素纳入水-能源-粮食系统进行分析,构建水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全评价指标体系,运用基于麻雀算法改进的投影寻踪模型对河北省2010—2019年水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全进行时空演变综合评价。结果表明:在研究期,河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级逐渐升高,各市的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全差异性降低；河北省各市水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级值在1.32～3.95之间,说明该系统安全处于不安全、亚安全、安全3个等级。建议河北省根据自身资源优势，合理分配资源,实现水、能源、粮食和人口的协调发展。

关键词：

Abstract: As an indispensable part of the BeijingTianjinHebei metropolitan circle, the security and stability of water resources, energy, food, population and other resources in Hebei Province are particularly important for the economic and social development of the whole region. Therefore, in order to deeply understand the security situation among water, energy, food and population systems in Hebei Province, population factors were included in the waterenergyfood system for analysis, and a security evaluation index system of waterenergyfoodpopulation system was built. The spatialtemporal evolution of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in Hebei Province during 2010-2019 was comprehensively evaluated by using the projection pursuit model improved by Sparrow algorithm. The results show that during the study period, the security level of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in Hebei Province is gradually increased, and the security difference of waterenergyfoodpopulation system is decreased. The security level values of waterenergyfoodpopulation system in all cities of the province range from 1.32 to 3.95, indicating that the system has three levels of insecurity, subsecurity and security. By analyzing the stability of waterenergygrainpopulation system, it is found that Hebei Province should rationally allocate resources according to its own resources advantages to realize the coordinated development of water, energy, food and population.

Key words: demographic factors; safety evaluation; waterenergyfood; projection pursuit model; Hebei Province

收稿日期:

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目(U20A20316)；河北省创新研究群体项目（E2020402074）

作者简介: 何立新（1966—），男，宁夏石嘴山人，教授，博士，主要从事智慧水务与水安全研究工作