降雨时空不确定性对小流域洪峰模拟的影响评估

摘要
图/表
参考文献(17)
相关文章()

全文: PDF ()

摘要：山丘区小流域洪峰模拟结果与降雨时空分布密切相关。以河南省荥阳市王宗店流域“7·20”山洪灾害为例，构建了15种时空分布的10 min尺度降雨情景，综合采用中国山洪水文模型和方差分析理论评估降雨时空情景变化对洪峰模拟的影响。结果表明：中国山洪水文模型可以较好地模拟“7·20”暴雨洪水过程。不同时间情景下10 min降雨量均匀分布模拟得到的洪峰流量较小、峰现时间较晚；非均匀分布时最大10 min降雨量发生时间越晚，模拟得到的洪峰流量越大、峰现时间越晚。空间情景变化主要影响洪峰流量模拟，采用泰森多边形法模拟得到的洪峰流量最大。时间情景变化是洪峰流量和峰现时间模拟结果不确定性的最主要来源，空间情景变化和时空情景耦合变化仅影响洪峰流量模拟。

	服务

	把本文推荐给朋友
	E-mail Alert
	作者相关文章

关键词： 暴雨山洪模拟；降雨时空不确定性；中国山洪水文模型；方差分析；王宗店流域

Abstract：Flood peak simulation in small mountainous catchments is closely related to the spatialtemporal distribution of rainfall process. Taking the “July 20” flash flood disaster occurring at Wangzongdian catchment in Henan Province as an example, 15 rainfall scenarios of 10minute time step were designed with different spatialtemporal variability, based on China flash flood hydrological model and analysis of variance were adopted to assess the impact of rainfall uncertainty on flash flood peak simulation. The results show that China flash flood hydrological model performs well for the “July 20” event. For temporal scenarios, the uniform distribution of 10minute rainfall induces a smaller simulated flood peak flow and a later time to flood peak. In the case of nonuniform distribution, the later the maximum 10minute rainfall occurs, the larger the simulated flood peak flow and the later the time to flood peak are. While, spatial scenario change mainly affects the simulated flood peak flow, and the maximum flood peak flow is obtained by using Thiessen polygon method. Temporal scenario change is the main uncertainty source for flood peak simulation in both flow and time. Spatial scenario change and the spatialtemporal scenario change only affect the flood peak flow simulation.

Key words： flash flood simulation; rainfall spatialtemporal uncertainty; China flash flood hydrological model; analysis of variance; Wangzongdian catchment

基金资助：国家自然科学基金资助项目（42171047）

通讯作者介绍：郭良（1960—），男，河南济源人，正高级工程师，主要从事山洪灾害防治方面的研究工作

作者简介：王雪梅（1998—），女，山东潍坊人，硕士研究生，研究方向为山洪灾害防治

引用本文：

王雪梅^1,2，郭良^1,2，翟晓燕^1,2.降雨时空不确定性对小流域洪峰模拟的影响评估[J].人民黄河,2024,46(4):49-54.
WANG Xuemei^1,2, GUO Liang^1,2, ZHAI Xiaoyan^1,2.Assessing the Impact of Rainfall SpatialTemporal Uncertainty on Flood Peak Simulation in Small Mountainous Catchment .Yellow River,2024,46(4):49-54.

链接本文:

http://www.rmhh.com.cn/qklb/2024/202404/202404/t20240407_568944.html

[1]WESTRA S,THYER M,LEONARD M,et al.A Strategy for Diagnosing and Interpreting Hydrological Model Nonstationarity[J].Water Resources Research,2014,50(6):5090-5113.

[2]杨小柳,王艺臻.水文模型的不确定性和异因同果性:认知的回顾[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):136-143.

[3]ZHAI X Y,GUO L,ZHANG Y Y.Flash Flood Type Identification and Simulation Based on Flash Flood Behavior Indices in China[J].Science China Earth Sciences,2021,64(7):1140-1154.

[4]BORGA M,ANAGNOSTOU E N,BLSCHL G,et al.Flash Flood Forecasting, Warning and Risk Management: the HYDRATE Project[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2011,14(7):834-844.

[5]ZHOU X D,MA W C,ECHIZENYA W,et al.The Uncertainty of Flood Frequency Analyses in Hydrodynamic Model Simulations[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2021,21(3):1071-1085.

[6]陈华,霍苒,曾强,等.雨量站网布设对水文模型不确定性影响的比较[J].水科学进展,2019,30(1):34-44.

[7]SILVESTRO F,REBORA N,GIANNONI F,et al.The Flash Flood of the Bisagno Creek on 9th October 2014:An “Unfortunate” Combination of Spatial and Temporal Scales[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,541:50-62.

[8]LIU Y H,LI Z J,LIU Z Y,et al.Impact of Rainfall Spatiotemporal Variability and Model Structures on Flood Simulation in SemiArid Regions[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2022,36(3):785-809.

[9]李大洋,梁忠民,周艳.基于MIKE SHE的洪水模拟与尺度效应分析[J].水力发电,2019,45(5):28-33，66.

[10]肖楠,叶磊,吴剑,等.降雨对山丘区小流域洪峰模拟不确定性的影响[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(7):35-38，43.

[11]吴泽斌,万海斌.2021年河南郑州山区4市“7·20”特大暴雨灾害简析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2022,32(3):27-31.

[12]翟晓燕,郭良,刘荣华,等.中国山洪水文模型研制与应用:以安徽省中小流域为例[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2020,28(5):1018-1036.

[13]王雪梅,郭良,翟晓燕,等.基于中国山洪水文模型（CNFF）的中小流域洪水频率分析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2022,32(6):31-35.

[14]USDA-SCS.National Engineering Handbook,Section 4,Hydrology[M].Washington D C:Soil Conservation Services,US Department of Agriculture,1985：25-28．

[15]张雪松,郝芳华,张建永.降雨空间分布不均匀性对流域径流和泥沙模拟影响研究[J].水土保持研究,2004，11(1):9-12.

[16]VETTER T,HUANG S,AICH V,et al.Multimodel Climate Impact Assessment and Intercomparison for Three LargeScale River Basins on Three Continents[J].Earth System Dynamics,2015,6(1):17-43.

[17]HUANG Y C,BRDOSSY A,ZHANG K.Sensitivity of Hydrological Models to Temporal and Spatial Resolutions of Rainfall Data[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2019,23(6):2647-2663.

2024,Vol. 46(4): 49

防洪治河

降雨时空不确定性对小流域洪峰模拟的影响评估

王雪梅^1,2，郭良^1,2，翟晓燕^1,2

（(1.中国水利水电科学研究院，北京 100038； 2.水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心，北京 100038)）

doi:

Assessing the Impact of Rainfall SpatialTemporal Uncertainty on Flood Peak Simulation in Small Mountainous Catchment

WANG Xuemei^1,2, GUO Liang^1,2, ZHAI Xiaoyan^1,2

(1.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;2.Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China)

全文: PDF ()

摘要： 山丘区小流域洪峰模拟结果与降雨时空分布密切相关。以河南省荥阳市王宗店流域“7·20”山洪灾害为例，构建了15种时空分布的10 min尺度降雨情景，综合采用中国山洪水文模型和方差分析理论评估降雨时空情景变化对洪峰模拟的影响。结果表明：中国山洪水文模型可以较好地模拟“7·20”暴雨洪水过程。不同时间情景下10 min降雨量均匀分布模拟得到的洪峰流量较小、峰现时间较晚；非均匀分布时最大10 min降雨量发生时间越晚，模拟得到的洪峰流量越大、峰现时间越晚。空间情景变化主要影响洪峰流量模拟，采用泰森多边形法模拟得到的洪峰流量最大。时间情景变化是洪峰流量和峰现时间模拟结果不确定性的最主要来源，空间情景变化和时空情景耦合变化仅影响洪峰流量模拟。

关键词：

Abstract: Flood peak simulation in small mountainous catchments is closely related to the spatialtemporal distribution of rainfall process. Taking the “July 20” flash flood disaster occurring at Wangzongdian catchment in Henan Province as an example, 15 rainfall scenarios of 10minute time step were designed with different spatialtemporal variability, based on China flash flood hydrological model and analysis of variance were adopted to assess the impact of rainfall uncertainty on flash flood peak simulation. The results show that China flash flood hydrological model performs well for the “July 20” event. For temporal scenarios, the uniform distribution of 10minute rainfall induces a smaller simulated flood peak flow and a later time to flood peak. In the case of nonuniform distribution, the later the maximum 10minute rainfall occurs, the larger the simulated flood peak flow and the later the time to flood peak are. While, spatial scenario change mainly affects the simulated flood peak flow, and the maximum flood peak flow is obtained by using Thiessen polygon method. Temporal scenario change is the main uncertainty source for flood peak simulation in both flow and time. Spatial scenario change and the spatialtemporal scenario change only affect the flood peak flow simulation.

Key words: flash flood simulation; rainfall spatialtemporal uncertainty; China flash flood hydrological model; analysis of variance; Wangzongdian catchment

收稿日期:

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（42171047）

作者简介: 王雪梅（1998—），女，山东潍坊人，硕士研究生，研究方向为山洪灾害防治